The Pause Before The Plunge

      New poll results are out, and the numbers look very bad for the Liberals indeed. According to the poll, the McGuinty budget in Ontario has done serious damage to federal Liberal prospects, and considering that Ontario was the cornerstone of a Liberal re-election bid, damage to the Ontario base could lead the Martinets into minority territory. As it is, the Martinets are looking like they're going go their asses whooped in British Columbia, Alberta, and Quebec. Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are dicier propositions, with serious damage being done to Martinet fortunes by the Conservatives and the NDP. Only Atlantic Canada remains solidly pro-Martin. The national numbers are as follows: Liberals 39%; Conservatives 31%; NDP 17%; BQ 11%. Key losses in Quebec and Ontario-- combined with diminished chances in the West-- could knock the Liberals from majority to minority government, or even worse.

      So, what does this mean? Before the McGuinty budget came down in Ontario, it was almost a certainty that Martin was going to take the plunge and drop the election writ on Sunday. In short, Martin was atop the diving-board, just read to go. With these poll numbers, though, Martin must be looking off the edge of that board and thinking twice about how cold the water is down there-- and probably suffering a bit of vertigo while he's at it. Although I still suspect Martin's going to call the election on Sunday, I also wouldn't be surprised if Martin has second thoughts and waits on calling an election until at least the fall. We've effectively been in election mode now for about three months, and all the foundations are there for an election call. If Martin takes the plunge now, it's because he thinks he has to do so; if he doesn't, it'll be a stunning turnabout of cowardice, a tacit admission that he's just not ready. I don't think he'll pull back-- hell, I don't think he can without looking like the biggest doofus in Canadian political history. But right now, Martin seems to be standing on the edge of the board, wondering how he got in this position, and wondering if the water down there really is as cold as everyone says it is.

      In other words, the game has temporarily changed. We have two days of "chicken" before anything-- if anything-- moves out on to the hustings. Interesting. It may be time to dig out Steve Winwood's Arc of a Diver album.