Riders Of The Storm

      It looks like COMPAS has done some preliminary sampling of some key ridings, and here are some of the polling results (pre-debate):

Jack Layton (NDP - Toronto Danforth): 53%
versus 33% for Liberal Dennis Mills and
10% for Conservative Loftus Cuddy and
4% for Green Party candidate Jim Harris

Ed Broadbent (NDP - Ottawa Centre): 47%
versus 27% for Liberal Richard Mahoney and
22% for Conservative Mike Mahoney and
4% for the Green Party candidate (name not given)

Belinda Stronach (Conservative - Newmarket Aurora): 59%
versus 30% for Liberal Martha Hall Findlay and
8% for NDP Ed Chudak and
2% for the Green Party candidate (name not given)

Scott Brison (Liberal - Kings Hants): 49%
versus 29% for Conservative Bob Mullan and
16% for NDP Skip Hambling and
5% for the Green Party candidate (name not given)

Ujjal Dosanjh (Liberal - Vancouver South): 41%
versus 28% for NDP Bev Meslo and
27% for Conservative Victor Soo Chan and
5% for Green Party candidate Doug Perry

It's interesting to note that Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan is in a dead heat in her riding, and she could well be one of the many suspected victims of the Liberal immolation. Other possible (and/or probable) victims: Dennis Mills, Tony Valeri, Stan Keyes. Broadbent's likely victory in Ottawa Centre is a bit of a coup. That was once thought to be a Liberal stronghold, and Mahoney was supposed to be able to slide to an easy win. Same for Bill Cunningham in Svend Robinson's old riding of Burnaby-Douglas, into which Martin parachuted his longtime advisor. It looks like it's going to remain in the hands of the NDP. You can see some of the various discussion on riding-by-riding facts here. Notice on this page how few of the former "Too Close To Calls" (TC) are going anywhere but Liberal. The BQ numbers on these pages, though, seem rather tentative, considering recent polling information.