Coppsing A Feel

      It's become a major story in current Canadian politics, as Liberal MP Sheila Copps tussles for her political survival against "colleague" Tony Valeri and the Paul Martin coterie. It's been clear for a very long time: as Martin's star ascended and his coronation as Prime Minister became inevitable, Copps' fate was inevitable. Indeed, her run against Martin for the leadership of the Liberals received far less attention than this, the obvious squeeze play being engineered by Valeri (and, tacitly, Martin, standing indifferently behind the scenes while pretending he's not controlling Valeri's leash) to remove Copps entirely from the political arena. The irony, of course, is that just when Sheila seemed most irrelevant, shuffled off to political oblivion, that she emerges as the major challenge to Paul Martin's leadership. She may have lost the battle for the position of Liberal leader, but she's scrappily fighting the ethicality of Martin's leadership more effectively than any of the Opposition leaders. She's gathering more attention, she's pointing out a lot of the hypocrisies intrinsic to Mr. Martin's supposed notions of "repairing the democratic deficit," and she's exposing a nasty underbelly to the Martinite methods of doing things.

      Like Martin or hate him, he's coming across in all this like an ingracious victor, and, more importantly, like a leader who cares more about devotional support rather than political wisdom. I've said before that Martin resembles Shakespeare's Bolingbroke: he has schemed his way to the throne, in many ways on the claim of being a better and more effective leader than his predecessor; but, like Bolingbroke, he's got serious problems in the ranks, and those problems are largely with those party-lifers (John Manley, Allan Rock, Stephane Dion, Charles Caccia) who dared question Martin in the least, and who showed even more than ounce of loyalty to his predecessor. Most of the others have stepped quietly aside, most notably Manley; Copps, however, typically adversarial, is trying to stand her ground, and in part expose the nasty backroom politics in the stacking of the Martin party. This is not to support either side: Copps was by no means an ideal MP or cabinet minister, and she proved very often an embarassment to the Chretien government; but she's not one to silence, or even merely to tangle with lightly. All in all, it has the makings of a great story, and her recent courtship with the New Democrats suggests there may be a possibility for a rupture in the hull of Liberal party support. Martin's coronation may have come with a larger cost than Martin and company first thought. Copps may have become the Hotspur in Martin's side, perhaps destined to defeat, but perhaps also a sign of disruptions on the horizon.

      Copps, like Mr. Chretien before her, is a street-fighter, and this image tends to go over fairly well in Hamilton East, where she's won her seat for the past 20 years. She has an air of legitimacy to her because of this long-stint of service, regardless of what one thinks of her politics. She also has more credibility in her current claims, because it's clear to just about everyone with eyes to see that this entire kaffufle could easily have been avoided, and that she is certainly being ousted in a fashion not in the least different than the method by which Martin (finally) ousted Chretien. One can very much imagine Copps spitting in Martin's face and charging, "I have done thee better than to be slighted thus!" Worse, Martin's claims that he won't get involved in local matters is hogwash, as he's very clearly getting involved where Martin loyalists are seeking election, and remaining indifferent where Chretien loyalists are facing challenges from Martinites. It also seems spurious that Valeri, fighting for the position of Hamilton lieutenant, is fighting to run in a riding in which he does not live. Polite political assassination doesn't come much more thinly-veiled.

      All in all, it's a great story, and it's anyone's guess how this is going to unfold. This much is clear: Hamilton is the first major proving ground for Martin's era, and his challenges are coming not from without but from within. If Copps does jump ship to the NDP, look for Hamilton East to become one of the most hotly-contested ridings in recent Canadian political history, especially as a former Deputy Prime Minister absents herself from the direction of a party she served so long (see also the Joe Clark scenario with the Conservatives, as a former Prime Minister rejects the movement of his own party's tidal shift). There are daggers flying in the air, and it's only a matter of time before the bloodstains become obvious. Who knew Canadian politics could assume such Shakespearean dimensions?

      One other brief thing: not to judge a book by its cover, but Tony Valeri is a scary looking man, and he has the political charm of a piece of cardboard. When I saw this article, I did a double-take: is this a man's face, or is it a Spitting Image puppet? Frighteningly enough, this is the man's face. Not that Copps is especially photogenic, but sheesh.... Cruikshank would have loved this man's face.

      Doctor J's useless (and probably wrong) prediction: Sheila jumps to the NDP. She and Valeri scrap, mercilessly, with Sheila's wrongedness and general charisma going up against Valeri's promises of political power and renewal; with Hamilton so hotly contested, and so vital to both NDP and Liberal prospects in the Southern Ontario region, the battle comes larger than these two, as the battle becomes between Jack Layton and Paul Martin, both of whom will pay much more attention to the riding than leaders have in the past. This too will verge on stalemate. In the end, spite will win out over pragmatism, and Copps will very barely eke out Valeri to stick in Martin's craw. Hamiltonians, particularly those in North and East Hamilton, will vote for opposition against consolidation, a visceral response more than an intellectual one per se. Copps will then survive one term and retire, her political currency exhausted. The big winner in all this: Jack Layton. The big loser: Tony Valeri. Or so it seems within the belly of the whale right now.

      But we shall see. And, damn, this should be good.