Nobody's Gonna Love Ya Like I Do, Baby...

      Well, it's over: the election is done, at least for now.   Yes, we've given ourselves a minority government, but it's a tenuous one, so tenuous in fact that it's unlikely to last the year.   The oddity is that we won't seem to know the final results for a bit:   there are a number of ridings so closely contested that recounts are inevitable, and they may shake up the possibilities of an NDP-supported Liberal minority.   How close are the numbers?   Ay, there's the rub: none of them are consistent this morning. According to the Globe and Mail, it's Liberals 135, Tories 99, NDP 19, BQ 54, Other 1. Some numbers have the NDP slightly higher (as high as 21) and thus holding the balance of power; with 19, they're just shy (by one vote).    So, it's obvious who's in the catbird's seat after all this is said and done: B.C. independent Chuck Cadman who is now about to find himself the most fawned-over politician in recent memory.   Look at those numbers, mès amis: with potentially 154 seats on the Lib/Dipper pole and 153 on the Tory/Bloc pole, the situation is tighter than a nun's butt.   For Mr. Martin to maintain his hold on power, he's going to have to do some quick maneuvering: he's either going to have to get Mr. Cadman's support and surrender the Speaker's chair to a Tory, or he's going to have to convince Mr. Cadman to accept the role of Speaker, an unlikely prospect because then Mr. Cadman's vote would cease to be relevant.   Oh, Canada, you've sure made matters very, very precarious indeed.   Your parliamentarians won't be going overseas anytime soon for fear of a key missing vote.   That may sound good to those of your grousing for parliamentarians to be "showing up for work," but it will likely mean that a lot of projects toward encouraging international investment and such will be severely impeded.   And look for Mr. Martin to court some of the center-left-of-center Bloquistes to give him some breathing room.   We're looking at what could be the most adversarial parliament in decades.

[+/-] Read on...

      Last night's results are little short of enfuriating.   Enfuriating, that is, because of Ontario, because it seems the gutless cowards in the 416 and 905 area codes went massively Liberal red (in the area of 40% numbers) DESPITE the litany of protestations and frustrations with government corruption.   In short, people in these ridings did the worst possible things they could have done.   They endorsed the status quo.   They proved that voter dissatisfaction is irrelevant, and created something entirely new: Battered Voters' Syndrome.   They proved to the Liberals-- and the insidious team of David Herle and company-- that negative advertising and public demonization works.   They seem to have shrunk, too, their own support in this parliament-- for by using the "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Tories" logic, they hurt themselves in a few key ridings that might have gone NDP instead of Conservative (mainly in B.C.).   In short, Ontario let itself be manipulated last night and it effectively refused change.    Yes, change, as Paul Wells rightly notes on his blog, was the big loser last night.   Southern Ontario-- not Canada-- chose the status quo.   Sure, a few ministers got turfed and all of the other parties made notable gains.   But it's in Southern Ontario that voters overwhelmingly fell for the Liberal scare tactics, and I'm ashamed of my neighbours right now.   With big black marks on their eyes, the voters of Southern Ontario went running back to the Liberals, held them tightly and said, "Oh, promise me you'll change this time, won't you, won't you? Please, I love you, but...." It's a sickening, sad display.   Watch your newspapers for the next little bit: I'm sure you'll see tons of pieces like this one about people who voted against rather than for, people who voted Liberal for fear of a Tory government, much to the consternation of the Tories and the NDP.   They bought the line: Nobody's gonna love ya like I do, baby...   Meanwhile, as the rest of the country looks at Southern Ontario with disgusted eyes, she protests, But you don't know him like I do....   Yes, dear, yes, yes we do. *sigh* Ontario did the unthinkable: it bitch-slapped itself. It thought it was biting the bullet, or swallowing its pride, or whatever; but, no, it bitch-slapped itself into submission.  They bought once more into The Myth Of The Natural Governors ^(TM) and the rancid rhetoric of "Either/Or" has moreorless prevailed.  Maybe people should check out the definition of this word.

      I'm being pretty flip about all this, but for good reason: in the end, people voted out of cowardice and I find that shameful. Warren Kinsella has speculated that much of the last-minute turnabout was done by female voters (and, one infers, from fear of the Tory Nobodaddyism on abortion and such). There might be some truth to that, but I'm not so sure. I'm relatively confident that a significant number of people were already harbouring Liberal support (fine and dandy, by the way, as long as you believe in them) but keeping it from the pollsters.   I also suspect that a lot of people figured "Liberals are scum, but my guy's not so bad," and voted that way.   But the swing, the greater tide, seems to have been the result of fear-mongering that thus rendered the entire election debate moot. 

      Believe it or not, I wouldn't object to the results here if Mr. Martin had articulated anything throughout the campaign that wasn't bile-inducing hypocrisy-- and, in fact, he could have done so in defence of his own record if he'd tried.  But instead he played the insidious game of manipulation and wrapped himself in The Health Care Flag.   The wisdom of the voters, indeed.

      So, for all the "strategic" (excuse me: ) voting, Canadians have elected what will likely amount to a hung parliament.   This means coalitions will have to be formed, but even those won't be enough to ensure victory or stability.   Instead, there will be a lot of hunting and pecking for party-breakers, a search that will more-than-likely prove futile. We may end up with a parliament that is even more rigid and inflexible as members of the opposing poles depend on the firmness of their alliances to maintain or to defeat the government.   What does this mean? There will be a lot more jockeying, a lot more bribery and pork.   Mr Martin's talk about a new way of governance-- by which members could vote their consciences on matters that weren't tied to the survival of the government-- is now moot.   Every vote will matter, every vote potentially a straw to break the camel's back.   Look for increased degrees of partisan intensity.   Look for politicians worrying obsessively about their immediate electability, lest a non-confidence motion or a sudden writ come down (which means, of course, "tough-stuff" won't get done).    Proportional representation is now likely to be stalled for a dog's age because with an election, like Odysseus, always seeming on the horizon, none of the big two parties will want to concede the structure which might lead them to government next-time around.   This is the minority scenario that those of us who championed the idea of a minority government most dreaded.   Everything hangs on sliverish threads, on a single vote here and a single vote there, and instead of groups having to work together in substanstial gestures of consensus, single members alone will be able to play their own sides against one another and possibly hold up legislation (or legislative defeats) depending on the ways in which they're courted.   It also means the Bloc Québécois is now far more important than those of us in the rest of Canada would generally like.   Congratulations, Canada, we've created a parliament ripe for blackmail. And congratulations, too; we'll be back at the polls more than likely within the year.

      What a tattered, tattered mess.   It is, I suppose, possible that the dangerous proximity to the precipice will force the parties to tread delicately and precisely, but, frankly, I don't see it happening.   It looks to me like we're in for a period of 50%+1 governance, a thing that should give serious pause to those of you that remember the dilemmas created by constitutional wrangling.  I'm sure that'll do wonders for the Canadian dollar, having a government that makes Avril Lavigne seem stable.

      Oh well, that's the way it works.  We're in for a turbulent-- and probably legislatively insignificant-- year or so, and we've ended one campaign to begin another already.   Now all eyes are on Mr. Cadman.  It's been a long time since one Member of Parliament mattered so much.  In the great words of Bette Davis, hold on to your hats, it's going to be a bumpy night.

      And Ontario: I don't know whether to describe you as cowards or sheep or dumbasses.   But I think this morning all three of the above apply.   By the way, the Battered Voters' Shelter is just down the street.