Down For The Count

WARNING: Long Post Of Interest Only To Canadian Election-Watchers        

      I promised myself I wouldn't put down my speculations on the outcome of the Canadian election on this blog until the last minute, but I'm close enough on it now (since with heading away for the weekend Friday and other stuff still to do, I may not be near this blog for quite a while). Before I get to my predictions, though, a few notes on things that can still upset the apple-cart, other than the Monty-Burns-Can't-Swallow-His-Own-Fish-Story possibility that always remains in every election.

• The Weather/The Timing/Holidays: It's generally believed that voter turnout this time around is going to be higher than it has been in previous years. It is, however, June. Many people are on holidays, and in Quebec especially other annual events might effect the voting. I don't see this hurting any particular party, though; it should be right across the board, though the real loser with this could be the Liberals, losing votes in ridings they were already going to lose anyway.
  
  
• The Polls & The Chretienites: With the latest polls suggesting a last-minute surge in Liberal support, it's very possible that some of the Chretienites will no longer feel the need to rally behind the banner for the sake of solidarity. This could mean a significant drop in Liberal support, especially in ridings believed to be more comfortably Liberal. And make no mistake: the recent support from the Coppses and the Manleys are not burials of the hatchets a-many. Unless there's a major drop in the polls (-2/3%) between now and Monday, don't be surprised if a number of these Libs decide they can just stay home on election day. Also look for the possibility that some of these people may vote NDP to spite Mr. Martin.
  
  
• The Polls & The Greens: Let's face it, a lot of the people who talk about supporting parties outside of the Big Four don't pull the trigger when they're finally presented with the ballot. Look for a significant amount of the Green vote to go to the Conservatives and to the NDP-- the Conservatives for the finance-oriented, the NDP for the ecology-minded. I don't see the Liberals picking up much here. With polls indicating how close this election could be-- and that it's very possible we might have to have THREE parties working together to form a government, a lot of people supporting the Greens might chomp at the bit.
  
  
• The Polls & The NDP: This is a real conundrum because the NDP has, in a way, the most to lose and the most to gain. Again, the polls have a larger control of the NDP vote than most of us tend to appreciate. For the past bit, Mr Martin has been trying to scare Dippers into voting Liberal for fear of a Tory government-- and it has worked to some degree. It also looks, though, like those numbers are very, very soft indeed, possibly the softest in the electoral decision. So, before I move on, let me restate this: NDPers could jump ship to the Liberals en masse to keep the Tories out of power. Then there's the other side of the equation. There's a lot of very soft Liberal support, much of which has been identified as disgruntled left-Liberals and wary-NDPers, and if the polls, particularly in certain areas, seem to indicate a real possibility of NDP victory as either front-runner or dark-horse, these people might turn to the NDP, with the added bonus of punishing the Liberals. A lot of polling information out of the main battleground-- Ontario-- has indicated a number of people dismissing voting for the NDP for fear of wasting their votes. Well, if the numbers look close enough, if there's room for what some call electoral dickering, the NDP could pick up some major votes, and a fair number of seats, none of which have been accounted for in recent polls. The NDP has the highest "second choice" numbers in Ontario, and if something suggests to people that a vote for the NDP may not be such a wasted vote-- if only, in some areas, as a protest vote-- it could mean big, big trouble, mainly for the Liberals but also for the Connies in some ridings. We've seen this before in Ontario, and it came with the name Bob Rae. It's been a two-horse race for this election, but it's not at all beyond the pale that at the last minute the electorate -- again, mainly in Ontario, but also true in B.C., Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic Provinces-- could vote on the "Anybody But Them" ticket. With a lot of races as close as they are between the two top parties, and a roughly 23% undecided component of the electorate, we could have a lot of dark-horse victories. (And every pollster in Canada would have a heart-attack just before being sacked.) Put otherwise: NDP could make huge, unpredicted gains at the last minute. So, which way do I think this will go? I don't know. I think the question can be phrased this way: how many people will have the guts to vote for the NDP after all (whether that means having the guts to stick with their convictions or to swallow poison is a matter for individual interpretation), OR how many people will go with what's behind Door Number 2. Will these people vote out of anger or out of caution? It's hard to tell what the dominant emotion is right now. My bet, however tenative: look for a number of unpredicted NDP victories, but not a lot. The losers here, I think, will be the Liberals. Look for the NDP to take about 18-19% of the vote. They'll lose some from caution, pick up some from anger, and it'll even out, with maybe a slight NDP advantage.
  
  
• The Harper Factor: The general assumption is that Harper's gained respectability in parts east of the Prairies, but his party significantly hasn't. Will people vote for the man or the party? Again, probably a bit of both, but I think what we'll see here is what's called the Broadbent Factor: the overriding notion that as much as people may like or respect the man, they won't vote for him-- or they won't vote for him because of the party he brings with him.
  
  
• The Martin Factor: A lot-- the majority-- of people want to stick it to Martin, to give him a good paddling for the Chretien stuff and for the stuff that's gone down on his own watch. Martin's not been particularly charismatic, he's blown a phenomenal electoral lead, and he's not regarded with great credibility by much of anyone outside the party. But this is the reverse-Broadbent factor. A lot of people may still vote Liberal despite Martin's mistakes, clinging to the party most at home with governance. If Martin wins this election, it'll be a negative victory, and there will be calls for his head soon enough. (There are already rumblings.) A lot of the vote -- it seems-- will depend upon how much individual Liberal candidates can encourage their constituents to vote for them and not the leader. In many ridings, Liberals have all but removed Martin from their campaign material. Regardless, a Martin win won't be seen in any quarters as a "win" or an endorsement of his leadership or even of the party's policies: it will be a victory by default, a spectacular pulling of their collective asses out of a self-started fire.
  
  
• The 'Off-With-Their-Heads' Factor: A lot of candidates, mainly Liberals but not exclusively, look like they're going to be executed for their acts and associations over the past while. I'm not talking about Dennis Mills likely losing to Jack Layton: that's not so much a punitive measure as it is an affirmative measure for a party (and clout-supported) parliamentarian. No, watch for those waiting for their torches to be snuffed. Stan Keyes in Hamilton-Centre is almost as good as dead. Anne McLellan, Deputy Prime Minister, is likely to be brought down under this theory. Jean LaPierre in Outremont is deader than the proverbial doornail. Look especially at some of the ridings in BC where candidates have been parachuted in. There may be guillotines waiting in the wings. It's still not at all certain if Tony Valeri will make the cut, so associated he is now with internecine warfare. A fair number of fairly-important heads will probably roll come Monday.
  
  
• The Youth Vote: It will be very, very slightly up this time around-- and it won't make a difference at all. Sorry. There's been no mobilization at all here, despite all the attempts to jostle them from their incredible inertia.  

      So, with this survey of the scene taken, where do I think all this is gonna go? It remains very uncertain, very cloudy. But, what the hell, here's my stab at a prediction of how things will turn out in the next parliament, roughly (remembering that there are 308 seats up for grabs):

Conservatives               120    (31%)
Liberals                       98     (33%)
NDP                            32      (19%)
BQ                              58      (12%)
Green/Independents      0        (4%)

A lot of those Liberal votes are effectively wasted ones-- in doomed BQ ridings in Quebec and Tory ridings in Alberta. The Tories will pick up a significant number of seats in rural Ontario and maybe a couple in Atlantic Canada. The NDP will do a bit better than the polls are currently indicating as a bit of "damn the torpedos" decision-making. The Greens and Independents won't prove factors, ultimately, except perhaps in a riding or two in British Columbia. The Bloc will rout the Liberals in Quebec, and the Tories won't win a seat there-- thus damaging their credibility as a national party trying to govern.

      One major caveat here: if the "Polls and the NDP Factor" plays the other way, subtract 8-10 of their seats and add them all to the Liberal pile. But I'm one of the few predicting the NDP will actually hit 30 seats this time around, such is the anger in some ridings against the Grits.   It's the major pronouncement of this blog that the determining factor of this election will not be the Liberal/Conservative support numbers -- both of which have found their settlement within a five-point difference of one another-- but how well the NDP does. The deciding factor in this election will be which way the pendulum finally swings for those voters on the cusp between the Libs and the Dippers. If it shifts to the Dippers, we've got an unevenly-quartered parliament. If it shifts to the Liberals, Mr Martin may be able to save face, at least temporarily.

      Martin will be offered the first chance to establish a government. He won't. He won't be able to do so. He'll let the Tories govern a while and wait to drop a Non-Confidence motion.

      One other thing: look for other heads to roll, almost exclusively in the Liberal ranks, after the election. David Herle and the Earnscliffe team have targets on their heads slightly larger than Winnipeg. Mr Martin even may find himself facing a leadership challenge within a year, though I doubt it. Regardless, the rumblings will be there, and the Liberals will start looking for a Henry V to replace the Bolingbroke that's caused such an awkward stir within the kingdom of the natural governors. Mrs Harper, Layton and Duceppe will have no such problems within their parties, all of whom have done better than was predicted six months ago. So look for another Liberal purge shortly-- a purge of some of the purgers that caused so much acrimony within the ranks. Whether Mr Martin survives this remains to be seen.

      Alright, that's my prediction, and take it for what it's worth, which is exactly what you've paid for it. You can check my answers Monday night and tell me how wrong I was. Then again, I might still be stuck at the border. Cheers.