 | Martin is looking away, shrugging off with indifference the words of Stephen Harper. Harper, however, stands there in remarkably muted gestures. Yeah, that's the important image of the night. Harper came across as very controlled, moderate, thoughtful; he was the model of civility, all-considered. Martin, though, was all over the map. He was alternately flustered, aggressive, sanctimonious, arrogant; you name it, he was it. Put another way, he was very much on the defensive, and not just in the political sense of that word. He was clearly showing the wear and tear of criticism, and few of his answers were satisfactory. He looked desperate, painfully, obviously desperate. |
On the flip side, though: as respectable as Mr. Harper was, I think Martin managed his main task, to get out all the buzzwords on demonizing Harper and the Conservatives, and while I don't think any of the major points stuck, there was a clear sense to which the gestalt of his argument got through, the gestalt being that we should be afraid of what the Conservatives will do. He was a bit like the madman screaming about the end of the world, but he said so often that I'm sure it stuck to a few minds. Martin's mistake was in aiming the attacks at Harper per se-- he should have aimed them at the factions of the Conservative party that are much less reserved, the members of the party that make John Crosbie sound diplomatic. Those members are owed favours in a Harper government, if there is one, and PM PM had to emphasize that. Going after Harper himself just didn't work.
Which means: it's official, and we now have the question that will decide the campaign. The voters have effectively condemned Martin, and they're ready to toss him: Martin did everything but admit so tonight. The question now is: Are Canadians willing to take a chance on Mr Harper? I don't know what the answer is yet. Martin may have reinforced a few fears tonight, but it now has to be said: if Martin somehow manages re-election (and it seems to me quite unlikely at this point, as the French debate was a slaughter and all those hopes in Quebec are dashed), it won't be a positive vote for him. It will be a vote against the Conservatives.
Oh, how the tides have turned.
On the others: Layton and Duceppe did fairly well, at least based on what they needed to do. Duceppe, with Piss-Dick-All to do, managed to be relaxed and comfortable and thoroughly enjoy needling Martin while seeming almost fey (and even a bit philosophical) about it. Layton was sanctimonious and High Lefty, but he spoke with sufficient skill and force that he managed to do what he need to do: to get right under the PM's skin, and to paint the Grits and the Tories as cover artists of each others' songs. Layton scored the best single shot of the night-- when Martin asked him if his handlers told him to talk so much, and Layton retorted by saying something to the effect that they were discussing missile defense and that this was not to be taken lightly. Martin took a hit for that, a significant one. All considered, Layton did what he had to do: he positioned himself as the dogged finger-pointer-- he positioned himself as a Opposition Leader in form if not likely-to-be in title.
Martin was the big loser tonight, though he may have put the fear of Harper into a few people, mainly (ironically enough) New Democrats; it's the Reverse-Nader factor. Duceppe's riding high. He will probably take more seats in Quebec than the BQ ever has. Harper looked surprisingly statesmanlike, as much as his party is very often the opposite.
So it all comes down to the Stephen Harper Fear Factor, and it's all about Ontario's pot-o-gold of parliamentary seats. In other words, it's about how many seats the Liberals are going to lose to the Dippers and to the Connies. Martin, if he's lucky, may have stopped the bleeding-- but that's all he may have done. I don't think he did it, though. It's going to be a squeaker I suspect-- between a Conservative Minority and a Conservative Majority.
Unless, unless, unless: Martin pulls off a coup, not in votes, but in a post-election coalition with the Dippers and the BQ if it turns toward a Conservative minority. Stay tuned.
ADDENDUM: Don't I look ooooooh-soooo-smart predicting all those months ago that Martin would discover the crown he stole would be lined with thorns? How did I know? Political insight? Innate genius? Natch. I just knows ma Shakespeare.
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